The 15

By Vinny Jace, Special to the15net dot com:

Surveying the landscape, the ramifications of the second apron now in full effect; the restrictions and penalties are onerous and assist only the greediest and cheapest owners. Until circumstances change it is safe to assume dynasties are impossible. The last five champions are in variations of turmoil.

• The Los Angeles Lakers are shackled to LeBron and his various whims, are deep in the red and have no real avenue to contend in a younger, more talented western conference.
• Milwaukee could have won another title in the years 2019, 2020 and 2022 when the team around Giannis was younger and better. But Fred VanVleet had a baby, swung the east finals series for Toronto. Jimmy Butler emasculated Giannis in The Bubble. Khris Middleton got hurt and was never the same. Now they are capped out, fired a very good regular coach in Mike Budenholzer, are rudderless at the head coach position and only have 3 actual NBA players.
• All Golden State needed to do was hit one just ONE of their lottery picks from 2020 and 2021 they wouldn’t be in this mess. James Wiseman, Jonathan Kuminga and Moses Moody could have easily been LaMelo Ball (I am not faulting them for not trading down for Tyrese Haliburton, nobody else did it), Franz Wagner or Alperen Sengun. Then they probably are able to get Paul George or Lauri Markkanen this summer instead of staring at the abyss of wasting the rest of Steph Curry’s career.
• Denver should have repeated this past year, but as fate would have it blowing a 20-point lead in a home Game 7 was the toll price paid for last season’s success. Famously cheap owner Stan Kroenke let lynchpins Reggie Jackson and Kentavious Cardwell-Pope depart leaves Denver more vulnerable with an underwhelming bench and I’d go as far to say they have fallen a tier in my rankings.
• And then there’s the sweet, beautiful boys in green… Wyc Grousbeck announced his intentions to sell and we’ll wait for the details to come, but if he hands the keys off to someone like Tillman Fertitta then we have to worry about cost cutting measures because someone rich enough to buy a professional basketball team didn’t have deep enough pockets to pay for it’s roster.

The NBA has become the NFL. Strangling dynasties in their cradle, turning the window of contention into a revolving door. In reality the window for title contenders are usually two measly years. The Celtics fortunately held on to nearly everyone from the title team; we’re still waiting to hear about Oshae Brissett and if there are any ring chasers looking for a spot.

The draconian rules of the second apron have set the NBA on the course for potentially becoming Major League Baseball, undermining the bargaining power of the players by instituting harsh penalties for spending too much. If a player feels he isn’t being respected at the negotiating table because the team doesn’t want to enter the second apron, then what if the other teams he goes to share that same fear? This is what we’ll see unfold in the near future.

In this new era it is arguably preferable for a team like the Clippers to let Paul George walk for nothing, because now nothing is something. Nothing is a mid-level exception you can use to sign a free agent. Nothing is some much needed financial wiggle room that takes you out of the deep red and into a light shade of orange. Los Angeles could have traded George to Golden State for a solid, young player like Jonathan Kuminga and veteran backup point guard Chris Paul and chose not to. If this was 10-years ago the Clippers would admit defeat and look to reposition their aging roster in an advantageous position to sell for parts, garnering assets along the way.

Right now the Celtics are paying over $547 million for their championship roster. Having made Jayson Tatum the richest player in league history; surpassing his teammate Jaylen Brown who achieved this honor last summer. Speaking of which, his supermax officially kicks in this upcoming season, Tatum’s will in 2025-26. They’re over $66 million over the cap, $15 million above the first apron and are $5 million above the second.

The penalties for crossing the second apron are both Byzantine and draconian:

No signing exceptions
Team becomes hard-capped at Second Apron by or can’t use/do:
• Using Tax MLE
• Aggregating two or more player salaries in a trade
• Sending out cash in trade
• Acquiring a player using a
TPÈ that was created via a previous sign-and-trade
• Can only:
• Re-sign own free agents
• Sign draft picks
• Sign players to minimum contracts
• Make trades where one player salary is sent out and equal or less salary comes back (can do a 1-for-2 or more trade

One doesn’t have to look to far to surmise the possible reason Wyc Grousbeck is selling his shares because when the bill comes due he wants no part of the aftermath and it’s not like pulling the plug now is an option. The Celtics are well worth their hefty salary and are poised to repeat in the minds of oddsmakers in Las Vegas. To preserve the runway now is to obliterate a proven near term future. Wyc will not do what Clay Bennett did to Oklahoma in 2012 and trade a star player just to duck the luxury tax.

However, when the Celtics do find themselves too far in the red it is safe to assume the ramifications will be ugly. This means potentially breaking up the Jays, either in a gut-wrenching trade where the Celtics pursue assets and cap relief rather than a “win-now” player, or a divorce similar to what Klay Thompson and the Warriors just went through. One side chasing another monumental pay day, and a withering dynasty consumed with apathy for one of its signature players.

But that’s all future Celtics problems. The hope I have is Wyc cares enough about the Celtics to not sell his shares in the immediate term and instead do it when the bill is coming due. It would be more profitable to sell now, give the team over to some cheap billionaire who’ll cry poor and in a year breaks the team down to spare parts. But maybe Wyc hangs on and lets Brad Stevens write the checks even if it decreases the value of the sale?

The pressure is on the Celtics, like it was this past season, to get the job done (again) and try to accomplish what would be the most impressive back-to-back championship in league history. There are plenty of reasons to assume it won’t happen, and a lot of them happen to be out of the Celtics control. This was the second straight playoffs where the championship team didn’t play a fifty-win team en route to the finals. Everything for the Celtics broke their way, and just like the 2015 Golden State Warriors made the most of their opportunities, you can expect the following playoffs to be more strenuous.

Of the last 9 teams to go back-to-back only one of them repeated with the same ease like they won in the first go-around.

1986-87 Lakers: 15-3

1987-88 Lakers: 15-9 (3 Game 7s!)

1988-89 Pistons: 15-2

1989-90 Pistons: 15-5

1990-91 Bulls: 15-2

1991-92 Bulls: 15-7

1993-1994 Rockets: 15-8

1994-1995 Rockets: 15-7

1995-96 Bulls: 15-3

1996-97 Bulls: 15-4

1999-00 Lakers: 15-8

2000-01 Lakers: 15-1

2008-09 Lakers: 16-7

2009-2010 Lakers: 16-7

2011-12 Heat: 16-7

2012-13 Heat: 16-7

2016-17 Warriors: 16-1

2017-18 Warriors: 16-5

⁃ 4 repeat champions where the difficulty on the back-half was comparable to the first part.
⁃ 1 repeat champion had an easier road to than the first time.
⁃ 4 repeat champions where the journey was harder on the back half.

We haven’t seen a repeat champion since Golden State. Every champion since fell into a decline two-years removed from their moment of triumph. Toronto nearly made the East Finals in 2020, then twiddled their thumbs as players like Kyle Lowry, Fred VanVleet and Pascal Siakam depreciated in value; Lowry and VanVleet leaving in free agency for nothing. The complacency bug bit their general manager Masai Ujiri.

LeBron’s Lakers won off the backs of two-way role players, and evidently he found that too boring and ordered the front office to go dumpster diving for the highest scoring free agent they could find. Trading Danny Green for Dennis Schroder when they already had Kentavious Cardwell-Pope as the creator on the second unit. Low-balling Alex Caruso. Trading KCP and Kyle Kuzma for Russell Westbrook. Then trading Westbrook for D’Angelo Russell, only to inexplicably hold on to him at the deadline when they could have netted an asset. The charade reached new highs when LeBron magnanimously offered to take a pay cut if Rob Pelinka could coax a star to join him in Los Angeles. Of course, they wasn’t possible given the short span of time. Los Angeles’ decline was self imposed.

But what of the newer generation of players who now made their way to the championship? Why hasn’t Giannis or Jokic returned to the winners circle? The answer could be winning the title doesn’t possess the same advantages it once did. You don’t get the LeBron 2013 season where he is freed from the shackles of scrutiny and the league officially becomes his. Instead, you’re expected to do it again with a bigger target painted on your back. The media becomes more vicious and wears them down. The Nuggets enjoyed a quiet rise to the top in 2023, later burdened by expectations and being treated as inevitable possesses an underrated threat to defending champions it did not before. Inevitability used to galvanize the favored team and demoralize the challenger, now the roles are reversed.

It is very possible we’ll see more additions to the “One and Done Club” due to the circumstances of the modern NBA.

The superstars in the One and Done Club list is:

• Dirk Nowitzki
• Julius Erving
• Moses Malone
• Rick Barry
• Elvin Hayes
• Wes Unseld
• Jerry West
• Nikola Jokic
• Giannis Antetkoumpo
• Jayson Tatum

Besides Dirk, before the beginning of the 2020s it was rare to win just one championship between the years 1988 and 2002. It used to be when you win the title once you’re going to do it again. Most of the One and Done champions came from the turbulent 1970s when team building was volatile due to strenuous contract negotiations, rampant egos and unpredictability. Only the Knicks and Celtics were allowed to peacefully decline. The Warriors fell because Rick Barry‘s petulance. The Blazers fell because of Walton’s poor feet and poor treatment of Maurice Lucas. The SuperSonics fell off because Dennis Johnson alienated the team during his contractual standoff. It would happen so suddenly too. The Warriors should have repeated in ‘76. The Blazers in ‘78.

Now the team that “should have” repeated loses in a more graceful, dignified manner. The short-handed Bucks fought the Celtics valiantly in ‘22. The Nuggets simply ran into a bad matchup in round two this year. Had nothing to do with egos or fisticuffs. Merely the grind becoming too much and the bottom giving out.

But this team “feels” different. The circumstances feel more favorable to Boston than in the past. The last eastern conference team to win the title was Milwaukee, the only reason they lost was because Middleton was injured. Many people picked them to repeat because the conference was viewed as easy pickings compared to the stronger west. Had they remained healthy they at least make it back to the finals and then it’s up to you whether they’d beat Golden State.

Fast forward to today, the east is still viewed as the “Leastern Conference”, the contenders don’t particularly stand out. Philadelphia signing Paul George will help ease the burden on Joel Embiid. But the issue for Philly is Embiid is never healthy when he is needed the most. They lost Nic Batum and Buddy Heild, and don’t possess a quality starting center or a deep bench. If your fourth best player isn’t at the level of Derrick White you’re going nowhere.

New York reunited the Villanova Wildcats by paying a premium for Mikal Bridges to complete their set. Their core of Jalen Brunson (28), Josh Hart (turning 30 next March), Donte Divencenzo (27), and the aforementioned Bridges (28) are poised to give the Knicks at least two more cracks at the title before the dearth of assets and financial flexibility hammer them. But it’s the hefty price of 5-first round picks they paid for Bridges that bothers me. They should have played hard ball with Brooklyn; there’s no way the Knicks didn’t know Bridges already wanted to go to them. Plus, they’re going to need those picks for potential future deals. Losing Isaiah Hartenstein to Oklahoma City leaves only the talented, but often injured Mitchell Robinson as their quality starting level center. Which isn’t ideal. I would have waited for Donovan Mitchell to become available because easing the scoring load for Brunson was more of a pressing concern to me than trading for Bridges when I am already paying a lot of money for O.G Anonuby.

The Knicks have time to fix their problems, though they don’t have many tools left in their arsenal. Tom Thibodeau is a great head coach, but tends to grind his players knees into dust which is how you get the pitiful Game 7 exit they ended last season with. They may have won the off-season, but can they win the post season?

So who are the real challengers for the champion Celtics? Milwaukee deserves a mention for having Giannis on their team. Beyond that they don’t have much to intimidate them with. If Brook Lopez is traded that leaves a hole at the center position, and it is quite frankly a bad idea to cast blame for the team falling from 4th in defensive rating in ‘22-23 to 19th in ‘23-24 on him and not Middleton’s continued decline and Damian Lillard being a turnstile. The front office is blaming the wrong player for their woes.

The real contenders are Miami, because they’ve beaten Boston before and more recently than Milwaukee. Much is ballyhooed about the rift between Jimmy Butler and Pat Riley, but they were never going to trade Butler. He is on an expiring contract, coming off an injury riddled campaign and Miami wouldn’t get much for him if they bit the bullet anyway. Unless Miami experiences another three-point shooting variance in the playoffs (can’t count out lightning striking twice) then this is the last stand for Heat Culture. Regardless, there is a chance the young guns Jaimie Jacquez and Nikola Jovic contribute and provide the aging Heat roster with a needed shot in the arm. Anything is possible with Erik Spolstra.

And lastly, the Indiana Pacers. Yeah, the team Boston swept. The only team that didn’t win a game versus the Celtics in the playoffs. Yeah, those guys I am saying could be the ones to do the job if the cookie crumbles in a certain manner. Indiana’s offensive rating in the East Finals was an astonishing 116. They play fast, efficient and are very smart. Rick Carlisle coached up Andrew Nembhard and everyone not named Myles Turner played really well offensively in that series. Defensively is a different story. But if they get a healthy Tyrese Haliburton in the playoffs and Bennedict Mathurin it’ll better compliment an already deep Pacers squad.

My only advice for the Celtics is try your damndest to avoid an unfavorable matchup in the second round. The second round is where the playoffs are the most volatile. It’s also where four of the last five defending champions fell.

Vinny Jace appears on the Entitled Weekend podcast. He does not come from the future.